I have a complicated relationship with the Academy Awards.
As I’ve said before, when we need the approval and validation of the dominant group in order for us to see our own work as valuable, we engage in a form of internalized racism that centers whiteness even as we engage in the subversive work of expressing black brilliance.
Yet, recognition is nice. We should not place too much of an emphasis on attaining white acknowledgment, but I feel it appropriate to celebrate the few times these award shows get it right.
Below, you will see a breakdown by category of each of the black nominees and whether they could, should or will win.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Hacksaw Ridge doesn’t deserve to be nominated, and La La Land will almost certainly win because it’s the kind of movie Hollywood loves—but Moonlight should win for best picture. I was emotionally devastated by Barry Jenkins’ film, but white folks love La La Land and the academy is overwhelmingly white. I’d be fine if Manchester by the Sea won, since Kimberly Steward is only the second black woman to be nominated for producing a film in the running for best picture. (The first was Oprah with Selma.)
Could win: Manchester by the Sea
Should win: Moonlight
Will win: La La Land
Actor in a Leading Role
Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield in Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling in La La Land
Viggo Mortensen in Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington in Fences
Seven-time nominee Denzel Washington is the most-nominated black actor in the history of the academy, and in Washington’s hands, Troy Maxson came alive as a complicated, flawed man. His only real competition for the Oscar is Casey Affleck, who played Lee Chandler, an introverted man overcome with grief. Affleck was the front-runner to win the award until his history of sexual assault was uncovered. As a result, Washington is poised to win after bringing home the Screen Actors Guild award.
Could win: Casey Affleck
Should win: Denzel Washington
Will win: Denzel Washington
Actor in a Supporting Role
Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water
Mahershala Ali in Moonlight
Lucas Hedges in Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel in Lion
Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals
Mahershala Ali is poised to win best supporting actor for his tender portrayal of Juan in Moonlight. While he plays the role of a drug dealer, the way he realizes the character shows that kindness is possible in even the direst of circumstances.
Ali has had an incredible year. He seems to have knocked Idris Elba off the sexiest-chocolate-man-alive pedestal, he was charismatic in Hidden Figures and he’s racked up the early awards while charming Oscar voters with his acceptance speeches. If he does not win, there will be blood in the streets.
Could win: Anyone white (It’s still the Oscars.)
Should win: Mahershala Ali
Will win: Mahershala Ali
Actress in a Leading Role
Isabelle Huppert in Elle
Ruth Negga in Loving
Natalie Portman in Jackie
Emma Stone in La La Land
Meryl Streep in Florence Foster Jenkins
In Loving, Ruth Negga plays Mildred Loving, one of the plaintiffs in the court case that struck down prohibitions against interracial marriage, as a quiet, soft-spoken woman weary of miscegenation laws. It is an understated role, which does not speak well for her Oscar prospects. Emma Stone, the female lead of La La Land, is almost guaranteed to win. It’s shocking that Viola Davis was not nominated in this category for her role in Fences. If she were nominated, she would be a lock.
Could win: Ruth Negga
Should win: Viola Davis (although she wasn’t even nominated!)
Will win: Emma Stone
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nicole Kidman in Lion
Viola Davis in Fences
Naomie Harris in Moonlight
Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams in Manchester by the Sea
Viola Davis better win this damn thing. She has received the most nominations for a black actress, with three, and she was robbed when she did not win best actress for The Help. Octavia Spencer’s nomination for playing Dorothy Vaughan, a no-nonsense NASA mathematician and supervisor struggling against the overt racism and sexism of 1960, in Hidden Figures is deserving, as is that of Naomie Harris, who plays the emotionally abusive Paula, mother of Moonlight’s Chiron. But Davis is a force of nature in Fences. She is deserving and she is due.
Could win: Any non-POC (Oscars be Oscaring.)
Should win: Viola Davis
Will win: Viola Davis
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve for Arrival
Mel Gibson for Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle for La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
With Moonlight, Barry Jenkins is only the fourth black best-director nominee, after John Singleton, Lee Daniels and Steve McQueen. (Shockingly, Spike Lee has never received a nomination for best director.) Damien Chazelle is a serious contender to win, but I’m going with my heart and picking Jenkins. His command of the medium allowed the emotionally affecting material to speak for itself.
Could win: Damien Chazelle
Should win: Barry Jenkins
Will win: Barry Jenkins
Documentary (Feature)
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
This has been a strong year for documentaries. Ava DuVernay (13th), Raoul Peck (I Am Not Your Negro), Ezra Edelman (O.J.: Made in America) and Roger Ross Williams (Life, Animated) have given us an embarrassment of riches. Only three other black directors have been nominated in this category, and DuVernay, of course, is the first black woman. I deeply enjoyed 13th and was moved by I Am Not Your Negro. But I am impressed by the scope of O.J.: Made in America (if not perplexed by its ability to be nominated, given the length), and O.J. has a great deal of momentum and is the front-runner to win.
Could win: 13th
Should win: I Am Not Your Negro
Will win: O.J. Made in America
Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
Joi McMillon is the first black woman to be nominated, and the second black editor ever in the category, for her work in Moonlight. I’m picking her seamless work on the movie that allowed a subdued film to never be boring. La La Land is a favorite to win, but I’m picking an upset because of the love the film has received of late.
Could win: La La Land
Should win: Moonlight
Will win: Moonlight
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney and Barry Jenkins are only the seventh and eighth black men ever nominated for screenplay honors. Criminally, Jenkins is merely the second black writer-director to be nominated for both categories, after John Singleton in 1991 with Boyz n the Hood. Yet August Wilson should win for Fences because, well, it’s a masterpiece of American literature. But with the amount of love Moonlight has received, it’s almost certain to win.
Could win: August Wilson for Fences
Should win: August Wilson for Fences
Will win: Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Moonlight is beautifully shot, and Bradford Young, the second African American ever nominated in this category, is effective in how he moves the camera in Arrival—but I cannot deny that La La Land shoots Los Angeles in a way that makes the city come alive. The opening shot is enough to win the award.
Could win: Arrival or Moonlight
Should win: La La Land
Will win: La La Land
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will hold the 89th Academy Awards ceremony Sunday at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Calif. It has the potential to be one of the blackest ceremonies in the history of whiteness.