If nothing else, former President Barack Obama has always been a practical guy. We all remember his “let me be clear” declarations before making a statement. When he said that, you know it was time to listen. Now it seems that he’s making something else clear: to paraphrase Aretha Franklin: “You better think.”
Obama’s talking to President Joe Biden, who’s recovering from a new COVID-19 infection (because it’s still a thing and it never went completely away) and is surrounded by increasing calls from Democratic lawmakers to drop out since his alarmingly poor performance at the June 27 presidential debate with Donald Trump.
Much of Biden’s political base is seemingly joining a chorus of party leaders saying he should step down now to make room for a replacement.
But to be clear, that’s not what Obama is saying. The Washington Post reports, citing unnamed sources, that the 44th president is telling his one-time vice president that he needs to take a serious look at the viability of his ongoing campaign. To be even more clear, as I’ve said before, the only one who knows if Joe Biden has another four years in him is Joe Biden.
This week, while much attention was on the Republican National Convention, the media focused on Biden and what he’d be doing going forward. We still don’t know, but my guess is that we will before next week is out. The Democratic National Conventions begins Aug. 19, and the Democrats need to hit Chicago looking confident and with a way forward.
So Obama’s job isn’t to convince Biden to drop out...it’s to make him see what happens if he stays in. What’s important here are two stakes:
First, where things lie at this juncture. In 59 total prior U.S. elections, only 10 times has an incumbent been put out of office and normally that should make the Democrats more secure. But polls are within the margin of error in battleground states — too close for comfort and party leaders feel like Biden should be doing better, although polls can be imperfect.
Risk of a Biden loss could also mean loss of control of the Senate, thus a Republican congress, Oval Office and conservative Supreme Court.
Secondly, the Black vote. In 2020, Biden got the endorsement of Rep. Jim Clyburn and it became apparent how important Black people would be in that election. Months later, he chose then-California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate and trumped Trump.
Black women led the way, followed by Black men and people of color in general when it came to tipping the scales. The Black vote is now just as important, and while there has been no major sign of Black defection from Biden, that is likely because Harris is still in his corner.
That makes it obvious that in order for Democrats to keep Black people, they need to make Harris the new nominee should Biden bow out. It’s easy math. She’s very recognizable to Black America, she’d have the ear of funders which means she’d get the money Biden was already raising, and she’s the product of an HBCU. The Dems couldn’t send a stronger message to us if they ran Denzel Washington.
Republicans on the other hand know they have no chance with the Black vote and aren’t trying. I mean, they made Amber Rose their DEI poster child. ‘Nuff said.
Having collected 95 percent of Black voters in 2008 and 93 percent in 2012, Obama understands what this all means. He probably wasn’t this granular to Biden, but was probably candid in showing him where things are.
None of this is to say what Biden should do. His campaign’s official line is that he’s not going anywhere, and that could still be the best course. But jumping ship to something illogical would be giving up a hidden advantage.
The best thing is that ultimately, we’ve gone in the space of one lifetime, from powerful people preventing Black people from voting, to an election depending on our vote. So being an old Motor City boy myself, “chickens coming home to roost never did make me sad; they’ve always made me glad.”
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Madison J. Gray is a New York-based journalist. He blogs at www.starkravingmadison.com.