Updated as of 9/06/2024 at 4:00 p.m. ET
We are less than 60 days away from deciding who will become the next president. With this high-stress, high-stakes election season quickly nearing its end, all eyes are on this one American University professor to prophesize who will win between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. And he just made his call.
According to C-SPAN, Dr. Allan Lichtman is an election forecaster, most notable for correctly predicting nearly every presidential election since 1984, including the last five elections correctly.
The professor spoke to CNN to make his final and exact prediction. After holding out on his definitive choice until after the Democratic National Convention, Lichtman has finally spoken, and he said— drumroll please— Harris will have a “precedent breaking victory” over Trump come November, he said.
Dr. Lichtman’s Method
Lichtman apparently has the proof to back up his claim. And according to him, the answers to all of the country’s burning questions surrounding the presidential winner will come down to his tried and true method to prove it.
So how does he do it? According to Fox News, Lichtman developed a formula he calls “the keys to the White House,” and to his defense, his method usually works.
Lichtman correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 election and Biden’s 2020 win. If that wasn’t enough, the historian also predicted both of former President Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 elections using the exact same method, according to American University. Simply put... the man is good.
The Magic of the Keys
He makes his predictions based on thirteen categorizes— or “keys” as the historian likes to call them. The categories are framed as “true or false” questions; if the candidate answers “true,” they also get a key. The candidate with the most keys is Lichtman’s predicted winner.
Lichtman’s “keys” explores the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates in addition to analyzing the current state of the nation.
The “keys” are as followed:
- party mandate
- contest
- incumbency
- third party
- short-term economy
- long-term economy
- policy change
- social unrest
- scandal
- foreign/military failure
- foreign/military success
- incumbent charisma
- challenger charisma
So.... How Does Harris Come Out on Top?
At the beginning of this election season, Democrats automatically won the “incumbency” key, but obviously, a lot has changed since President Joe Biden dropped out. Back in July, Lichtman told NewsNation “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose,” and as we’ve all noticed, a lot has gone right for the Harris-Walz ticket since then.
Off the bat, Harris held six keys: primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma. Trump had three keys working in his favor: mandate, because the Republicans won the House majority in the 2022 midterms; no incumbency, because Biden is no longer seeking re-election; and the incumbent lacking charisma (sorry, Biden).
Now, Lichtman says the Democratic nominee controls two more keys: third-party and no social unrest. With this, Harris holds most of the keys over Trump, even though foreign policy success and foreign policy failure are still up for grabs, according to the professor
We’ll have to wait until election day to see if Lichtman’s prophecy comes true. And we don’t know about y’all, but we’ll take our chances betting on Lichtman.