If we’re being honest: It’s been an incredibly predictable awards season. Heading into The 96th Oscars, we aren’t expecting many surprises in the major categories. Yes, we will hear “The Oscar goes to ‘Oppenheimer’ several times during the big show. However, it’s still fun to analyze and predict what will happen on the biggest night in Hollywood, so these are our 2024 Oscars predictions.
Best Picture:
- “American Fiction”
- “Anatomy of a Fall”
- “Barbie”
- “The Holdovers”
- “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- “Maestro”
- “Oppenheimer”
- “Past Lives”
- “Poor Things”
- “The Zone of Interest”
Obviously we’d love to see “American Fiction” pull off some ridiculous upset, but that’s clearly not going to happen because “Oppenheimer” is winning this. If you’ve got an Oscar pool going, this is the closest thing to a lock you’re going to find.
Winner: “Oppenheimer”
Best Actor:
- Bradley Cooper - “Maestro”
- Colman Domingo - “Rustin”
- Paul Giamatti - “The Holdovers”
- Cillian Murphy - “Oppenheimer”
- Jeffrey Wright - “American Fiction”
In a perfect world Colman Domingo or Jeffrey Wright would win this award for their spectacular performances in films representing vastly different aspects of our community. Cillian Murphy is so captivating in all his roles, we can’t be mad at him finally being recognized, but Wright’s work in “American Fiction” was so thought-provoking that it will be one of those performances we keep coming back to over and over.
Winner: Cillian Murphy - “Oppenheimer”
Best Actress:
- Annette Bening - “Nyad”
- Lily Gladstone - “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Sandra Hüller - “Anatomy of a Fall”
- Carey Mulligan - “Maestro”
- Emma Stone - “Poor Things”
This category has come down to Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. In “Poor Things” Stone gives a brave, balls to the wall performance. However, Gladstone’s courageous representation of her community’s trauma is something we can appreciate. When things are this close, we look to the SAG Awards to break the tie, meaning we’re going with Lily.
Winner: Lily Gladstone - “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Best Supporting Actor:
- Sterling K. Brown - “American Fiction”
- Robert De Niro - “Killers of the Flower Moon”
- Robert Downey Jr. - “Oppenheimer”
- Ryan Gosling - “Barbie”
- Mark Ruffalo - “Poor Things”
Robert Downey Jr. is going to win this one, both for his performance in “Oppenheimer” and for his decades-long career. His speech will probably be one of the highlights of the night and he did save the universe from Thanos, so we can’t be mad about him getting this moment. However, we’re also super excited for Sterling K. Brown to be recognized alongside such a prestigious group of actors. Let’s hope this catapults his career to the next level, so that the next time he’s here, it’s in the leading actor category.
Winner: Robert Downey Jr. - “Oppenheimer”
Best Supporting Actress:
- Emily Blunt - “Oppenheimer”
- Danielle Brooks - “The Color Purple”
- America Ferrera - “Barbie”
- Jodie Foster - “Nyad”
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph - “The Holdovers”
This feels like Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s crowning moment, but you can never underestimate how much Oscar voters like a surprise. In a night set up to be an “Oppenheimer” sweep, we can’t completely rule out an upset for Emily Blunt. “The Color Purple” didn’t receive the love we thought it would, but it’s joyous to see Danielle Brooks honored for her transcendent performance as Sofia.
Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - “The Holdovers”
Best Animated Feature:
- “The Boy and the Heron”
- “Elemental”
- “Nimona”
- “Robot Dreams”
- “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
I will never pick against the “Spider-Verse,” especially since the first film won this award in 2019. Its major competition is coming from animation legend Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron.” Honestly, this one is a toss up, but when in doubt, go with Miles Morales.
Winner: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Best Original Song:
- “The Fire Inside” - “Flamin’ Hot” - Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
- “I’m Just Ken” - “Barbie” - Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
- “It Never Went Away” - “American Symphony” - Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
- “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)“ - “Killers of the Flower Moon” - Music and Lyric by Scott George
- “What Was I Made For?” - “Barbie” - Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
The Academy is desperate to give often nominated songwriter Diane Warren her long-awaited Oscar win, but with “Barbie” dominating the category, it doesn’t look like that moment is happening this year. If Ryan Gosling’s heartbreaking performance doesn’t push “I’m Just Ken” to a win, Billie Eilish and Finneas will pick up their second Oscar.
Winner: “I’m Just Ken” - “Barbie”
Hosted Jimmy Kimmel, The 96th Oscars air live Sunday, March 10 at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT on ABC.